北京市居民地铁出行出发时间弹性时空分布特征研究
作者简介:孟 斌(1971-),男,安徽肥东人,博士,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事城市地理和地理信息科学研究。E-mail:mengbin@buu.edu.cn
收稿日期: 2018-04-30
要求修回日期: 2018-11-19
网络出版日期: 2019-01-20
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(41671165)
北京市属高校高水平教师队伍建设支持计划高水平创新团队建设计划项目(IDHT20180515)
Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Residents' Depart Times Elasticity in Beijing
Received date: 2018-04-30
Request revised date: 2018-11-19
Online published: 2019-01-20
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41671165
Funding Project for Academic Human Resources Development in Institutions of Higher Learning Under the Jurisdiction of Beijing Municipality, No.IDHT20180515
Copyright
伴随城市转型进程的加快,交通需求不断膨胀,导致大城市交通拥堵日趋严重,以调节出行者的选择行为为核心要素的交通需求管理理念成为相关政策的重要理论基础,但现有研究也表明,交通需求管理对出行弹性较高的出行具有显著调节作用,而对出行弹性较低的出行调节作用并不明显。因此,加强出行弹性等居民出行行为研究日益迫切,而公交刷卡数据等新的时空数据为居民复杂出行行为的挖掘提供了新的契机。本文利用北京市2014年3月地铁刷卡数据,以出行者出发时刻的可变性来测度出发时间选择的可改变程度,对居民地铁出行出发时间选择弹性进行测度,并结合GIS空间分析技术对其时空分布特征进行分析。研究表明:① 北京市地铁出行的居民出行弹性平均值为0.521,出发时间选择弹性整体上较大,表明北京居民出发时间选择相对较为灵活;② 北京市居民地铁出行弹性存在时空差异,居民个体休息日出行弹性高于工作日,一天中高峰时段出行弹性高于非高峰时段;③ 居民出行弹性存在空间自相关,倾向于在空间上发生集聚,存在明显的冷热点区域;内城居民的出行弹性明显高于城市外围居民。
孟斌 , 黄松 , 尹芹 . 北京市居民地铁出行出发时间弹性时空分布特征研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019 , 21(1) : 107 -117 . DOI: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180216
With the acceleration of the urbanization, residents' traffic demand has been continuously increasing, resulting in increasingly severe traffic congestion in large cities. The concept of traffic demand management(TDM) has become an important theoretical basis for relevant policies, but the existing research also shows that TDM has a significant adjustment effect on travel with higher flexibility, while the regulation of travel with lower flexibility is not obvious.Research on mobility behaviors such as travel flexibility has become increasingly urgent, and the new spatio-temporal data, such as smart traffic card data, has provided new opportunities to explore the complex of the residents' travel behavior. Travel elasticity refers to the traveler’s preference for the choice of decision variables over a long period of time. It is the selected probability and discreteness of the selection in the travel decision. It is usually used to measure the room for changes in the travel choice behavior, including time elasticity, travel mode flexibility, route flexibility, fare elasticity, etc. In this paper, we measured the travel elasticity of the residents' departure time who takes the subway to work and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution features based on the smart traffic card data of residents in Beijing in March 2014. The results showed: (1) The average travel elasticity of residents in Beijing who go to work by subway is 0.521. It shows that the overall travel of residents is still relatively flexible, and it also confirms the effectiveness of this research method in revealing the characteristics of residents' travel behavior. (2) There are spatial and temporal differences in the flexibility of Beijing residents. The elasticity of the individual's is higher in the rest days than that of the working day. The elasticity during the peak hours is higher than that in off-peak hours. (3) There are also spatial agglomerations of travel flexibility. Travel elasticity has spatial autocorrelation, tends to agglomerate in space, and there are obvious hot spot areas. At the same time ,the inner city residents' travel flexibility is significantly higher than that of the outskirts of the city.
Tab. 1 Information of the sample data表1 样本数据构成 |
卡号 | 日期 | 星期 | 进站 | 出站 | 通勤时间 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
时间 | 线路 | 站点 | 时间 | 线路 | 站点 | ||||
00***44 | 19 | 星期三 | 7:26:00 | 1 | 8 | 8:04:01 | 1 | 22 | 0:38:01 |
00***56 | 18 | 星期二 | 6:25:00 | 13 | 41 | 7:21:49 | 94 | 29 | 0:56:49 |
21***65 | 12 | 星期三 | 7:14:00 | 96 | 27 | 8:10:26 | 9 | 27 | 0:56:26 |
32***34 | 9 | 星期天 | 7:33:00 | 13 | 45 | 7:40:49 | 13 | 49 | 0:07:49 |
86***06 | 27 | 星期四 | 7:10:00 | 95 | 39 | 8:49:10 | 13 | 45 | 1:39:10 |
注:上表只给出部分数据,样本共9 153 036条数据。 |
Tab. 2 Three data sets and processing rules表2 各数据集样本数量及各字段处理规则 |
全体样本 | 工作日样本 | 休息日样本 | |
---|---|---|---|
卡号出现频数/次 | ≥20 | ≥15 | ≥6 |
星期 | 星期一至星期天 | 星期一至星期五 | 星期六、星期天 |
进站时间 | [5:00:00 , 10:00:00] | [5:00:00 , 10:00:00] | [5:00:00 , 10:00:00] |
通勤时间 | [3 min , 2 h] | [3 min , 2 h] | [3 min , 2 h] |
样本记录数/条 | 9 153 036 | 7 826 079 | 571 572 |
样本人数/人 | 417 321 | 400 206 | 72 965 |
注:按数据处理规则,仅统计2014年3月数据;由于工作日样本和休息日样本有交叉,故全体样本不等于工作日样本与休息日样本之和。 |
Tab. 3 The level classification of travel elasticity表3 出行弹性等级分类 |
弹性值 | 弹性等级 | 意义 | 出发时间范围/min |
---|---|---|---|
完全刚性(0) | 1 | 对1个选择肢具有刚性需求(或显著偏好) | (0,5 ] |
![]() | 2 | 对某2个选择肢的并集具有刚性需求(或偏好),且不是等级1 | (5,10 ] |
3 | 对某4个选择肢的并集具有刚性需求(或偏好),且不是等级1或2 | (10,20 ] | |
4 | 对某6个选择肢的并集具有刚性需求(或偏好),且不是等级1或2或3 | (20,30 ] | |
完全弹性(1) | 5 | 以上4种情况外的出行 | >30 |
Tab. 4 The travel elasticity results of three data sets表4 不同数据集下出行弹性测度结果 |
数据集 总人数/人 | 卡号 | 刷卡 总次数/次 | K(D) | 进站时间 (平均值) | 出站时间 (平均值) | 通勤时间 (平均值) | 进站 站点 | 出站 站点 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
全体样本(417 321人) | 460**115 | 24 | 0.592 | 7:23:23 | 7:59:04 | 0:35:41 | 9059 | 645 |
164**510 | 21 | 0.617 | 7:29:34 | 8:04:40 | 0:35:06 | 1335 | 433 | |
000**244 | 24 | 0.628 | 7:34:15 | 8:16:23 | 0:42:08 | 18 | 122 | |
000**932 | 21 | 0.479 | 7:27:17 | 7:44:38 | 0:17:21 | 27 | 643 | |
000**912 | 20 | 0.396 | 6:31:00 | 7:14:53 | 0:43:53 | 521 | 218 | |
工作日样本 (400 206人) | 046**115 | 21 | 0.561 | 7:19:43 | 7:55:55 | 0:36:12 | 9059 | 645 |
520**567 | 20 | 0.449 | 7:29:06 | 8:12:55 | 0:43:49 | 523 | 643 | |
823**711 | 18 | 0.491 | 8:20:23 | 8:32:10 | 0:11:47 | 1027 | 1035 | |
100**982 | 17 | 0.548 | 8:36:18 | 8:53:55 | 0:17:37 | 559 | 545 | |
138**755 | 21 | 0.550 | 7:44:31 | 8:15:55 | 0:31:24 | 819 | 839 | |
休息日样本 (72 965人) | 489**451 | 7 | 0.353 | 6:32:09 | 7:35:18 | 1:03:09 | 621 | 9627 |
899**448 | 8 | 0.583 | 7:13:37 | 7:43:06 | 0:29:29 | 1343 | 529 | |
879**668 | 9 | 0.652 | 8:31:00 | 8:56:18 | 0:25:18 | 445 | 465 | |
504**812 | 9 | 0.586 | 8:20:07 | 8:58:05 | 0:37:58 | 813 | 9429 |
注:由于人数偏多,表4中只给出部分测度结果;进站及出站名称统计的是出行者出入数量最多的站点名称。 |
Tab. 5 The value range of travel elasticity level under different probability表5 不同概率下出行弹性等级区间取值 |
弹性等级 | A情况:Pi≥ 80%的条件 | B情况:Pi≥ 90%的条件 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
弹性等级区间 | 人数/人 | 占比/% | 弹性等级区间 | 人数 | 占比/% | |
1 | [0 , 0.203] | 7 927 | 1.90 | [0 , 0.102] | 2 576 | 0.62 |
2 | (0.203 , 0.444] | 98 053 | 23.50 | (0.102 , 0.371] | 52 020 | 12.47 |
3 | (0.444 , 0.617] | 208 300 | 49.91 | (0.371 , 0.565] | 190 771 | 45.71 |
4 | (0.617 , 0.696] | 76 364 | 18.30 | (0.565 , 0.653] | 108 288 | 25.95 |
5 | (0.696 , 1] | 26 677 | 6.39 | (0.653, 1] | 63 666 | 15.26 |
注:本研究中出行弹性未达到最大值“1”,工作日最大出行弹性为0.810,休息日最大弹性为0.709。 |
Fig. 1 The distribution of departure time elasticity (the both sets)图1 出发时间选择弹性分布-全月数据集 |
Fig. 2 The distribution of departure time elasticity (the work sets)图2 出发时间选择弹性分布-工作日数据集 |
Fig. 3 The distribution of departure time elasticity(The rest sets)图3 出发时间选择弹性分布-休息日数据集 |
Tab. 6 The travel elasticity of people who go to work at different times表6 不同进站时间出行者出行弹性 |
进站时间 | 全体样本 | 工作日样本 | 休息日样本 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
人数/人 | 平均K(D) | 人数/人 | 平均K(D) | 人数/人 | 平均K(D) | |
5:00-5:30 | 508 | 0.305 | 574 | 0.291 | 344 | 0.289 |
5:30-6:00 | 3399 | 0.374 | 3580 | 0.352 | 1868 | 0.350 |
6:00-6:30 | 11 509 | 0.432 | 12 304 | 0.402 | 4367 | 0.415 |
6:30-7:00 | 33 377 | 0.461 | 35 390 | 0.432 | 7626 | 0.448 |
7:00-7:30 | 72 421 | 0.494 | 73 270 | 0.467 | 10 092 | 0.478 |
7:30-8:00 | 116 454 | 0.519 | 111 270 | 0.493 | 14 504 | 0.489 |
8:00-8:30 | 105 008 | 0.542 | 95 643 | 0.516 | 15 646 | 0.501 |
8:30-9:00 | 53 073 | 0.566 | 48 108 | 0.542 | 11 112 | 0.514 |
9:00-9:30 | 19 185 | 0.572 | 17 728 | 0.554 | 6164 | 0.505 |
9:30-10:00 | 2387 | 0.534 | 2339 | 0.523 | 1242 | 0.465 |
Fig. 4 The travel elasticity change of people who go to work between 5:00 and 10:00 in the morning图4 早5:00-10:00出行者出行弹性变化 |
Fig. 5 Getis-Ord Gi* of work dataset (inbound,outbound)图5 工作日数据集热点分析 |
Fig. 6 Getis-Ord Gi* of rest data set (inbound,outbound)图6 休息日数据集热点分析 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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