气象因素影响下中国手足口病时空演化特征研究
谢 玲(1990- ),新疆库尔勒人,博士生,讲师,主要从事环境健康研究。E-mail: 1428375964 @qq.com |
收稿日期: 2020-01-08
要求修回日期: 2020-03-02
网络出版日期: 2021-05-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(4186010245)
版权
Study on Spatiotemporal Evolution of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD)in China under the Influence of Meteorological Factors
Received date: 2020-01-08
Request revised date: 2020-03-02
Online published: 2021-05-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(4186010245)
Copyright
近年来,手足口病在我国感染者的数量仍然呈现逐渐增加的趋势,对公共健康造成很大的威胁,也对疾病防控提出严峻的挑战。为探讨气象因素(气温、降水)对我国手足口病(Hand Foot and Mouth Disease, HFMD)发病的时空影响特征及规律,本文以我国手足口病疫情平发年2017年为例,利用分地区、分月份疫情数据,采用地理探测器、空间自相关等分析方法分析各地气象(气温、降水)因素对手足口病发病影响及其时空分异。结果表明:① 在时间上,2017年我国各地中心城市手足口病发病有明显的季节差异,年内有单峰发病模式和双峰(高低峰、双高峰)发病模式,且2017年2、4、12月各地中心城市手足口病发病率有显著的空间相关;② 在空间上,2017年我国各省、市手足口病发病在空间上表现为东南各省市发病率高,西北各省市发病率低的特点,并随降水量由东南向西北呈现递减趋势;③ 2017年省、自治区、直辖市和地级市手足口病爆发热点时段(4—8月)时空演化分析,先由东南各省向西北各省蔓延,后又表现为由西向东退缩;④ 2017年我国各地中心城市手足口病月发病率分别与年均降水量、年均温,呈二次函数关系(R2=0.6623)和指数函数关系(R2=0.6469);⑤ 气温和降水对手足口病交互作用结果表现为双因子非线性增强,气温和降水的交互作用对手足口病传播的影响更为显著。气象因素对我国手足口病发病存在影响,我国手足口病发病在时间和空间上均存在显著差异,分析结果在宏观尺度上可为我国手足口病防控提供参考。
谢玲 , 王宏卫 , 刘素红 , 高一薄 , 玛丽亚木·玛木提 , 伊素燕 , 马晨 . 气象因素影响下中国手足口病时空演化特征研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2021 , 23(3) : 431 -442 . DOI: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200024
The rising number of people infected by Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China poses a great threat to public health and a critical challenge to disease prevention and control in recent years. This paper used regional monthly statistics of HFMD in 2017 when HFMD was common in China. The GeoDetector, spatial autocorrelation, and other analysis methods were adopted to analyze the influence of meteorological factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on the prevalence of HFMD and its spatial and temporal differentiation. The results show that: (1) Temporally, the prevalence of HFMD had significant seasonal differences in major cities of China in 2017, with a single prevalence peak or double prevalence peaks (i.e., high-low peak, double high peak). Moreover, the prevalence of HFMD in those cities had a significant spatial correlation in February, April, and December; (2) Spatially, the HFMD in China was characterized by high prevalence level in southeast provinces or cities and low prevalence level in northwest provinces or cities, showing a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest along precipitation gradient; (3) According to the spatial and temporal distribution of HFMD outbreak period (from April to August) at provincial and city level in 2017, HFMD spread from southeast to northwest, and then retreated from west to east; (4) The prevalence of HFMD in major cities in China was correlated with the average annual precipitation and average annual temperature, which were fitted by a quadratic function (R2=0.6623) and an exponential function (R2=0.6469), respectively; and (5) The interaction effect between temperature and precipitation on HFMD resulted in a double-factor nonlinear enhancement and was more significant than a single factor during the spread of HFMD. The prevalence of HFMD in China is influenced by meteorological factors and is significantly different at spatial and temporal scales. Our results can provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD at national level.
表1 2009-2017年我国手足口病发病人数及发病率Tab.1 The number of HFMD and the incidence of HFMD in China from 2009 to 2017 |
年份 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
发病数/人 | 1 155 525 | 1 774 669 | 1 619 706 | 2 168 737 | 1 828 377 | 2 778 861 | 1 997 371 | 2 442 138 | 1 929 550 |
发病率/1/104 | 87.0111 | 132.9599 | 120.7916 | 160.9632 | 135.0312 | 205.0565 | 146.5996 | 178.1562 | 139.8388 |
图1 2017年我国省、自治区、直辖市和地级行政区手足口病发病率空间分布注:该图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2019)1698号标准地图制作,底图无修改。由于数据获取困难,香港、澳门、台湾数据暂缺。 Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of the incidence of HFMD in provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government and prefecture-level administrative regionin 2017 |
表2 不同因子交互作用的类型Tab. 2 Types of interaction |
类型 | 交互作用 | 图示 |
---|---|---|
q(X1,X2)<Min(q(X1),q(X2)) | 非线性减弱 | ![]() |
Min(q(X1),q(X2))<q(X1,X2)<Max(q(X1)),q(X2)) | 单因子非线性减弱 | |
q(X1,X2)> Max(q(X1),q(X2)) | 双因子增强 | |
q(X1,X2)=q(X1)+q(X2) | 独立 | |
q(X1,X2)>q(X1)+q(X2) | 非线性增强 |
注: |
表3 手足口病发病率与年均降水量、年均温相关系数表Tab. 3 Correlation between incidence of HFMD and annual average precipitation & annual average temperature |
发病率 | 月均降水量 | 月均温 | |
---|---|---|---|
发病率 Pearson相关性 | 1 | 0.588** | 0.562** |
月均降水量 Pearson相关性 | 0.588** | 1 | 0.882** |
月均温 Pearson相关性 | 0.560** | 0.882** | 1 |
注:P>0.01(双侧检验),相关性显著,**表示在0.01水平上显著。 |
图4 2017年省、自治区、直辖市和地级行政区手足口病爆发热点时段发病时空分布注:该图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2019)1698的标准地图制作,底图无修改。 Fig. 4 Spatial and temporal distribution of hot spots periodof HFMD outbreaks in in provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government and prefecture-level administrative region in 2017 |
表4 我国各地中心城市手足口病时空特征气象因素作用探测结果Tab. 4 The detected result of the meteorological factors of the spatio-temporal characteristics of HFMD in provincial capital cities of China |
降水 | 气温 | |
---|---|---|
q | 0.6051 | 0.5519 |
p | 0.0401 | 0.0448 |
表5 气象因子交互作用结果Tab.5 Iteraction of meteorological factors |
降水 | 气温 | |
---|---|---|
降水 | 0.6051 | - |
气温 | 0.6320 | 0.5519 |
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