Journal of Geo-information Science ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 100-113.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.210359

Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Coupled FLUS and Markov Approach to Simulate the Spatial Pattern of Land Use in Rapidly Developing Cities

WANG Xudong1(), YAO Yao1,2,*(), REN Shuliang1, SHI Xuguo1   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China
    2. Alibaba Group, Hangzhou 311121, China
  • Received:2021-06-28 Revised:2021-09-22 Online:2022-01-25 Published:2022-03-25
  • Contact: YAO Yao;
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801306);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFB2102903)


Modeling urban land use change is important for future regional planning and sustainable development. Previous FLUS-based studies are mostly based on larger grid scales. How to simulate the complex land use change processes in rapidly developing cities and explore the driving mechanisms of land use change still need further exploration. This paper constructs an urban land use pattern simulation framework coupled with FLUS and Markov and innovatively introduces house price to characterize socio-economic attributes. We take Shenzhen as the study area to simulate future urban land use spatial patterns under different development scenarios based on small grid scale (30 m) land use classification data and multi-source spatial variables such as basic geography data, road and river networks, and point-of-interest data. Finally, we analyze the land use change drivers using random forest models. The results show that the coupled FLUS and Markov method proposed in this paper has higher accuracy (FoM = 0.22) and simulate the land use change processes more accurately in rapidly developing cities, compared to traditional CA models (RFA-CA and Logistic-CA). The mapping results of multi-scenario land use patterns verify the importance of ecological control lines in the process of urban development, further illustrating the reference value of the proposed simulation framework for future urban planning layout. Hospital infrastructure, entertainment venues, and bus stop, road network density have a greater impact on urban development than natural factors (e.g., elevation, slope), while the distance to coastline limits land use change processes to some extent within Shenzhen. The model constructed in this study and the fine mapping results can provide a reference basis and theoretical foundation for related research on urban regional planning and spatial pattern simulation.

Key words: multi-source data, rapidly developing cities, land use patterns, Markov model, FLUS model, scenario settings, simulation of land use spatial patterns, land use change driving mechanisms