国土空间规划视角下的城镇开发边界划定和空间管控体系构建

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.210552

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the background of territorial spatial planning in the new period, delimiting the urban development boundary scientifically and reasonably and establishing a sound territorial space use control system are important measures to guide all kinds of territorial space development and protection. Taking Fuzhou City as an example, this paper constructs a global multi-dimensional territorial space control system. Management and control constraints are embedded in the future land use pattern simulation. At the same time, considering the regional spatial heterogeneity and spatial-temporal dependence, this paper designs the Spatial-temporal Cellular Automata (ST-CA) model which integrates geographical partition strategy, deep learning technology, and the functional module of FLUS model to delimit the urban development boundary. Based on the existing achievements, this study integrates three zones and three lines to carry out the application research of spatial management and control under the thinking of "combination of planning and control". The results show that: (1) The ST-CA model considering regional spatial heterogeneity and spatial-temporal dependence can effectively improve the accuracy of land use change simulation and achieve a more realistic and accurate geographical simulation process. The overall accuracy of the model increased from 95.95% to 98.34%; (2) Control constraints are embedded in the process of geographical simulation, which can guide the rational layout and controllable scale of urban, agricultural, and ecological spaces. Delimitation of urban development boundary based on simulation results can effectively avoid occupation on protected land; (3) The future simulation results combined with the control early warning value show that the urban expansion situation in the main urban area and surrounding districts and counties of Fuzhou City is relatively severe. In the future, it is urgent to reasonably regulate the territorial space pattern of Fuzhou City; (4) The characteristics of boundary change trend show that the delimitation results are consistent with the long-term development planning of Fuzhou City, which is in line with regional development demands. The territorial space pattern presents a multi-axis development trend. The research results can provide scientific planning for the development and protection of territorial space and practical reference for territorial space control and optimization in Fuzhou City.

Key words: territorial spatial planning, urban development boundary, space control system, spatio-temporal cellular automata, Fuzhou city

CHEN Ting, XU Weiming, WU Sheng, LIU Jie. Delimitation of Urban Development Boundary and Construction of Space Control System from the Perspective of Territorial Spatial Planning[J].Journal of Geo-information Science, 2022, 24(2): 263-279.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.210552

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空间类型	分类依据	一级类	二级类
城镇空间	从事城镇建设和发展经济的区域	城乡、工矿、居民用地	城镇用地
城镇空间	从事城镇建设和发展经济的区域	城乡、工矿、居民用地	其他建设用地等
农业空间	提供农产品和农村生活为主导功能的区域	农业生产用地	农村居民点
			旱地
			水田
生态空间	具有自然属性,提供生态产品服务功能的区域	林地	有林地、灌木林、疏林地等
		草地	天然草地、其他草地等
		水域	河流、湖泊、滩涂、滩地等
		未利用地	沙地、裸土地、沼泽地等

类型	编号	驱动因子	因子说明
自然环境	X1	高程	代表该空间单元的高程
	X2	坡度	代表该空间单元的陡缓程度
	X3	植被覆盖度	代表空间单元森林资源和绿化水平
区位条件	X4	距区县中心距离	代表该空间单元到其最近区县中心的距离
	X5	距机场距离	代表该空间单元到其最近机场的距离
	X6	距港口距离	代表该空间单元到其最近港口的距离
	X7	距火车站距离	代表该空间单元到其最近火车站的距离
	X8	距公交站距离	代表该空间单元到其最近公交站的距离
	X9	距铁路距离	代表该空间单元到其最近铁路的距离
	X10	距公路距离	代表该空间单元到其最近公路的距离
	X11	距河流距离	代表该空间单元到其最近河流的距离
社会经济	X12	GDP	代表该空间单元的GDP水平
	X13	人口密度	代表该空间单元的人口分布状况
	X14	夜间灯光指数	代表该空间单元的城市发展情况
政策规划	X15	规划空间布局	代表规划布局对该空间单元的引导
	X16	规划轨道交通	代表该空间单元到其最近轨道交通的距离
	X17	规划产业结构	代表产业结构布局对该空间单元的引导

空间功能	管控分区
城镇指向	城镇开发边界刚性管制区
	城镇发展优化引导区
	城镇发展改善提升区
农业指向	基本农田刚性管制区
	农业与农村发展优化引导区
	农业与农村发展改善提升区
生态指向	生态保护红线刚性管制区
	生态服务优化引导区
	生态服务改善提升区

目标层	准则层	权重	指标层	权重
空间管控预警	违法规模	0.2808	建设用地占用生态保护区面积	0.1245
			建设用地占用基本农田面积	0.1088
			建设用地占用耕地面积	0.0475
	管控强度	0.3397	城镇空间开发保护强度	0.0666
			农业空间开发保护强度	0.1204
			生态空间开发保护强度	0.1269
			建设用地扩展强度指数	0.0258
	形态布局	0.1404	聚集指数	0.0436
			建设用地紧凑度	0.0693
			蔓延度指数	0.0275
	自然环境	0.2390	景观形状指数	0.0231
			建设用地平均生态敏感性指数	0.0978
			建设用地平均高程指数	0.0489
			建设用地平均坡度指数	0.0692

类型	数据名称	时间/年	数据来源
基础地理数据	区县中心、交通站点、铁路	2015	1:25万基础地理数据库（www.webmap.cn）
	高速公路、一般公路、河流
自然环境数据	土壤数据	1995	资源环境数据云平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
	DEM	2015	地理空间数据云网站（http://www.gscloud.cn/）
	植被指数	2010—2020	资源环境数据云平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
遥感影像数据	遥感影像	2010—2020	地理空间数据云网站（http://www.gscloud.cn/）
土地利用数据	土地利用数据	2010—2020	遥感影像解译
社会经济数据	GDP、人口密度	2010—2015	资源环境数据云平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
	夜间灯光数据	2013	资源环境数据云平台（http://www.resdc.cn/）
政策规划数据	规划空间布局、轨道交通、		福州市自然资源和规划局
	产业结构、控制线成果
气象数据集	年均降水、年均风速	1981—2010	中国气象数据网（http://www.cma.gov.cn/）
	月均湿度、月均气温

Delimitation of Urban Development Boundary and Construction of Space Control System from the Perspective of Territorial Spatial Planning

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冲突类型	冲突模式
生态优势区	高-中/低-中/低;中-低-低
农业优势区	中/低-高-中/低;低-中-低
城镇优势区	中/低-中/低-高;低-低-中
强冲突区	高-高-高;高-中/低-高; 中/低-高-高
中冲突区	高-高-中/低;中-中-中; 中-低-中;低-中-中
弱冲突区	低-低-低;中-中-低

模型	OA/%	Kappa	FoM
ANN-CA	95.95	0.9321	0.3999
SOM-ANN-CA	96.71	0.9448	0.4648
CNN-LSTM-CA	97.88	0.9645	0.5552
ST-CA	98.34	0.9722	0.6914

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