乌梁素海流域生态脆弱性时空变化及其成因分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2023.230212

Abstract

Abstract:

To meet the challenges posed by the "fragmented" nature of ecological governance, it is crucial to have a holistic understanding of the vulnerability of basin ecosystems and the underlying patterns of their evolution for comprehensive ecological management. The Ulansuhai Basin, serving as a pilot site for a representative ecological conservation and restoration project, has experienced a shift from traditional "lake management" to a more systemic "basin management". This study selected the Ulansuhai Basin as the study area and established a "Sensitivity-Recovery-Pressure" index system for ecological vulnerability assessment. Using the Google Earth Engine cloud platform, methods including Mann-Kendall test, Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and transformation trajectory were applied to analyse the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability in the Ulansuhai Basin from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, geographical detectors were utilized to further investigate the causes of ecological vulnerability in the Ulansuhai Basin, and to identify the primary driving factors. The results indicated that the ecological vulnerability of the Ulansuhai Basin exhibited a “low in the middle, high on both sides” pattern, e.g., the western region of the Ulan Buh Desert and the eastern Ula Mountain region had relatively higher ecological vulnerability, while the central Hetao irrigation area had lower ecological vulnerability. From 2000 to 2020, the basin’s ecological vulnerability grading index increased from 2.44 to 2.59, indicating a slight decline in ecological vulnerability. Abrupt changes of vulnerability were observed in 2000, 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2020, with approximately 59.82% of the basin area maintaining stable ecological vulnerability grades throughout the assessment period. The transformation trajectory method showed that the decline of vulnerability peaked in 2013 and then began to slow after 2017. Additionally, surface aridity was identified as a key driving factor of ecological vulnerability in the Ulansuhai Basin, and the interaction of multiple factors showed a stronger explanatory power for ecological vulnerability than a single factor. Generally, land cover type exhibited the most significant explanatory power, followed by meteorological and economic types. This study analyzed the long-term spatiotemporal changes and causes of ecological vulnerability in basin ecosystems, providing a scientific basis for the assessment and governance of ecological conservation and restoration projects in ecologically vulnerable regions.

Key words: ecological vulnerability, Ulansuhai Basin, Google Earth Engine, time series analysis, Geodetector, spatiotemporal change

LI Yunfan, LI Caixia, JIA Xiang, WU Jing, ZHANG Xiaoli, MEI Xiaoli, ZHU Ruoning, WANG Dong. Spatiotemporal Changes and Causes of Ecological Vulnerability in Ulansuhai Basin[J].Journal of Geo-information Science, 2023, 25(10): 2039-2054.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2023.230212

Figures/Tables 15

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Interactive detector result types

判断依据	交互作用
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 < M i n q X 1, q X 2$	非线性减弱
$M i n q X 1, q X 2 < q X 1 ⋂ X 2 < M a x q X 1, q X 2$	单线性减弱
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 > M a x q X 1, q X 2$	双线性增强
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 = q X 1 + q X 2$	相互独立
$q X 1 ⋂ X 2 > q X 1 + q X 2$	非线性增强

Tab. 4

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 5

Ecological vulnerability index change statistics in Ulansuhai Basin from 2000 to 2020

Sen斜率	$Z$	变化状况	研究区占比/%
>0.000 5	≥ 1.96	显著上升	4.15
>0.000 5	< 1.96	不显著上升	2.77
-0.000 5~0.000 5	< 1.96	稳定不变	9.55
<-0.000 5	< 1.96	不显著下降	48.59
<-0.000 5	≥ 1.96	显著下降	34.93

Tab. 5

Fig. 8

Tab. 6

Fig. 9

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要素层	指标层	指标性质	空间分辨率	原始数据来源
生态敏感性 (Sensitivity)	高程	正向	90 m	SRTM^[32]
	地形起伏度	正向	90 m	SRTM
	景观干扰度	正向	1 km	Zendo^[33]
	年均降雨量	正向	1 km	中国科学院环境数据中心
	大气温度	正向	1 km	Zendo^[34]
	地表温度	正向	1 km	MODIS
	地表湿度	负向	30 m	Landsat
	地表干度	正向	30 m	Landsat
生态压力度 (Pressure)	人口密度	正向	1 km	GPW v4^[35]
生态恢复力 (Recovery)	植被覆盖度	负向	30 m	Landsat
生态恢复力 (Recovery)	经济密度	负向	1 km	中国科学院环境数据中心^[36]

传感器名称	B	G	R	NIR	SWIR₁	SWIR₂
TM	0.031 5	0.202 1	0.301 2	0.159 4	-0.680 6	-0.610 9
ETM+	0.262 6	0.214 1	0.092 6	0.065 6	-0.762 9	-0.538 8
OLI	0.151 1	0.197 3	0.328 3	0.340 7	-0.711 7	-0.455 9

脆弱性等级	生态脆弱性指数范围	脆弱程度	生态特征解释
Ⅰ	0≤ EVI<0.2	潜在脆弱	生态功能完整，对各类干扰敏感性弱，承受生态压力小，自我恢复能力强，无生态异常出现
Ⅱ	0.2≤ EVI<0.4	微度脆弱	生态功能较为完整，对各类干扰敏感性较弱，承受生态压力较小，自我恢复能力强，存在潜在的生态异常
Ⅲ	0.4≤ EVI<0.6	轻度脆弱	生态功能尚可维持，对各类干扰敏感性中等，承受生态压力接近阈值，自我恢复能力较弱，存在少量的生态异常
Ⅳ	0.6≤ EVI<0.8	中度脆弱	生态功能部分退化，对各类干扰敏感性较强，承受生态压力较大，受损后恢复难度较大，生态异常较多
Ⅴ	0.8≤ EVI ≤1	重度脆弱	生态功能退化严重，对各类干扰敏感性强，承受生态压力大，受损恢复难度大，生态异常集中连片出现

生态脆弱性因子	q统计值	p值
地形起伏度	0.135 6	2.93E-10
高程	0.515 2	6.12E-10
地表湿度	0.417 5	3.37E-10
大气温度	0.472 6	1.20E-10
年均降雨量	0.560 0	6.66E-10
人口密度	0.000 0	1
地表干度	0.561 3	5.19E-10
地表温度	0.214 9	9.49E-10
经济密度	0.200 9	3.98E-10
景观干扰度	0.237 9	5.29E-10
植被覆盖度	0.063 7	5.94E-10

Spatiotemporal Changes and Causes of Ecological Vulnerability in Ulansuhai Basin

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