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Urban Expansion Prediction for Zhangzhou City Based on GIS and Spatiotemporal Logistic Regression Model

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  • Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining & Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Spatial Information Research Center of Fujian Province, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China

Received date: 2010-12-04

  Revised date: 2011-02-06

  Online published: 2011-06-15

Abstract

We start this study aimed at building a new method of spatiotemporal logistic regression model to predict urban expansion. This method first established a space Logistic regression model by adding autocorrelation structure based on the traditional logistic regression model, then built the multiple sub-space Logistic regression model Mi of urban growth simulation of different stages by Zhangzhou City's nearly 20 years (from 1989 to 2009) data. After this work, a spatiotemporal logistic regression model which took into account the spatial complexity and temporal complexity was constructed by using single exponential smoothing to treat these time series sub-model synthetically. On one hand,this novel method has overcome the traditional shortcoming that the influencing factor data is difficult to obtain in the prediction year, on the other hand, the model considers the complexity of urban growth in the long time series, that is a combination of urban expansion in different periods of different factors situation, bring it closer to the actual urban expansion, which will improve the prediction accuracy. Zhangzhou City of Fujian Province was taken as an example in the study, and the urban expansion in 2009 was forecast by using three methods, i.e. traditional logistic regression model, space logistic regression model and spatiotemporal logistic regression model. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the new method based on spatiotemporal logistic regression model was more better than others, for which the overall prediction accuracy were 81.02%, 83.82% and 87.0% respectively, and the sensitivity of urban land use prediction increased from 63.59% to 67.35% and 73.3%. Area AUC under the ROC curve raised in size from 0.826 to 0.883 and 0.924.

Cite this article

YANG Yunlong, ZHOU Xiaocheng, WU Bo . Urban Expansion Prediction for Zhangzhou City Based on GIS and Spatiotemporal Logistic Regression Model[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2011 , 13(3) : 374 -382 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2011.00374

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