Application Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change Estimation Methods in Chinese Mainland

  • 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2011-11-03

  Revised date: 2011-12-08

  Online published: 2012-02-24


The methods used in surface air temperature change estimation in Chinese Mainland during recent 20 years are summarized in this paper, and data materials, temporal scale and results in different researcher's study are contrastively analyzed. Based on the meteorological observation air temperature data from 1970 to 2007 and several popular warming estimation methods internationally used, we estimated the warming trend in recent 40 years. The results of direct average method, calculation by station method, regional area weighted method, first difference method and spatial interpolation method show the same warming trend in recent years and every season in Chinese Mainland, but vary in quantities clearly. The uncertainties in warming estimation with different methods are analyzed and it is concluded that the warming trend in recent 40 years ranges from 0.30-0.43℃/10a, the warming amplitude is between 1.16 and 1.56℃, warming is most apparent in winter and slightest in summer, warming in the northern part is more than in the southern part.

Cite this article

SUN Chaoyang, SHAO Quanqin, LIU Jiyuan . Application Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change Estimation Methods in Chinese Mainland[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2012 , 14(1) : 14 -21 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2012.00014


[1] 任国玉.地表气温变化研究的现状和问题[J].气象,2003,29(8):3-6.

[2] 王绍武.近百年我国及全球气温变化趋势[J].气象,1990,16(2):11-15.

[3] 王绍武.近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究[J].气象学报,1994,52(3):261-273.

[4] 王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢等.近百年中国年气温序列的建立[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4): 392-401.

[5] 林学椿,于淑秋.近40年我国气候趋势[J].气象,1990,16(10):16-22.

[6] 唐国利,林学椿.1921-1990年我国气温序列及其变化趋势[J].气象,1992,18(7):3-6.

[7] 于淑秋,林学椿,徐祥德.中国气温的年代际振荡及其未来趋势[J]. 气象科技,2003,31(3):136-139.

[8] 赵宗慈.近39年中国的气温变化与城市化影响[J].气象,1991,17(4):14-16.

[9] 陈隆勋,邵永宁,张清芬,等.近四十年我国气候变化的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,1991,2(2): 164-174.

[10] 陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.中国近45年来气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(3):257-271.

[11] 唐国利,任国玉.近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):791-798.

[12] 唐国利,丁一汇.由最高最低气温求算的平均气温对我国年平均气温序列影响[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(2):187-192.

[13] 李庆祥,李伟.近半个世纪中国区域历史气温网格数据集的建立[J].气象学报,2007,65(2):293-300.

[14] Hansen J, Lebedeff S. Global trends of measured surface air temperature[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1987, 92,13345-13372.

[15] Jones P D. Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: A reanalysis and an update to 1993[J]. Journal of Climate, 1994(7):1794-1802.

[16] Peterson T C, Karl T R, Jamason P F, et al. First difference method: Maximum station density for the calculation of long-term global temperature change[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, 103:25967-25974.

[17] 邵全琴,孙朝阳,刘纪远,等.中国城市扩展对气温观测的影响及其高估程度[J].地理学报,2009,64(11): 1292-1302.

[18] 于贵瑞,何洪林,刘新安,等.中国陆地生态信息空间化技术研究(I)——气象/气候信息的空间化途径[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(4):537-544.

[19] 阎洪.薄板光顺样条插值与中国气候空间模拟[J].地理科学, 2004, 24 (2) :163-169.

[20] 刘志红,Li Lingtao,Tim R. M.等.专用气候数据空间插值软件ANUSPLIN及其应用[J].气象,2008,34(2).

[21] Hutchinson M F. ANUSPLIN Version4.3 User Guide[J]. Canberra: The Australia National University, Center for Resource and Environment Studies 2004 .

[22] Hutchinson M F. The application of thin plate splines to continent-wide data assimilation[J]. Data Assimilation Systems, BMRC Research Report Melbourne: Bureau of Meteorology, 1991(27):104-113.