Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Future Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shanghai

  • 1. Key Laboratory of Soil & Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, Ministry of Education, Beijing Forest University, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. College of Resources & Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China

Received date: 2012-03-20

  Revised date: 2012-06-04

  Online published: 2012-08-22


Rapid urbanization often results in intensive land use change especially in the urban area of China. As an important economic center in China, urban expansion in Shanghai is always at a high speed in recent years. Using land use datasets in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, derived from interpretation based on Landsat TM/ETM images, this paper firstly analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban expansion during 1990-2005, then simulated this process using SLEUTH model and analyzed the simulation precision, and forecasted urban expansion and land use change process in the next 30 years. The results indicated that: (i) the urban expansion is very fast during 1990-2005, the urban land area increased by 81 278 hm2 (10.14%). The temporal process of urban expansion took on a first decrease and then increase trend. The most obvious expansion occurred in 2000-2005, the urban land area increased by 40 668 hm2 (5.08%), and the sea reclamation is the typical characteristic in this time period. (ii) The Lee-Sallee index were more than 0.75 in the calibration process of SLEUTH, and the amount and morphology of simulated urban expansion were more consistent with actual situation in 2005 than in the past. So SLEUTH model could simulate urban growth mode of Shanghai City and obtain high precision result of land use changes, and the Kappa coefficient could be up to 0.8476. (iii) In the next 30 years, Shanghai would expand at an annual average rate of 1.63%, and the city area would be reach 152 685 hm2 in 2040. The urbanization process would occupy 41 824 hm2 cultivated land, and the cultivated land area would decrease at a speed of annual average area of 1200 hm2, but it would not affect the aim of cultivated land protection in the future general land use planning. (iv) The main mode of urban expansion in Shanghai was the edge growth, the direction towards east along Wuzhou Avenue in the Pudong new area, the direction towards south along the Humin elevated road in Xuhui District, and the direction towards west along Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in Jiading and Qingpu districts, are the main city expansion direction in the future. And (v) from 2010 to 2040, urban expansion in Shanghai will occupy cultivated land 1200hm2 per year, and will occupy cultivated land 41 824 hm2 totally.

Cite this article

ZHENG Kaidi, XU Xinliang*, ZHANG Xuexia, Liu Luo . Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Future Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2012 , 14(4) : 490 -496 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2012.00490


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