Journal of Geo-information Science >
Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Future Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shanghai
Received date: 2012-03-20
Revised date: 2012-06-04
Online published: 2012-08-22
Rapid urbanization often results in intensive land use change especially in the urban area of China. As an important economic center in China, urban expansion in Shanghai is always at a high speed in recent years. Using land use datasets in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, derived from interpretation based on Landsat TM/ETM images, this paper firstly analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban expansion during 1990-2005, then simulated this process using SLEUTH model and analyzed the simulation precision, and forecasted urban expansion and land use change process in the next 30 years. The results indicated that: (i) the urban expansion is very fast during 1990-2005, the urban land area increased by 81 278 hm2 (10.14%). The temporal process of urban expansion took on a first decrease and then increase trend. The most obvious expansion occurred in 2000-2005, the urban land area increased by 40 668 hm2 (5.08%), and the sea reclamation is the typical characteristic in this time period. (ii) The Lee-Sallee index were more than 0.75 in the calibration process of SLEUTH, and the amount and morphology of simulated urban expansion were more consistent with actual situation in 2005 than in the past. So SLEUTH model could simulate urban growth mode of Shanghai City and obtain high precision result of land use changes, and the Kappa coefficient could be up to 0.8476. (iii) In the next 30 years, Shanghai would expand at an annual average rate of 1.63%, and the city area would be reach 152 685 hm2 in 2040. The urbanization process would occupy 41 824 hm2 cultivated land, and the cultivated land area would decrease at a speed of annual average area of 1200 hm2, but it would not affect the aim of cultivated land protection in the future general land use planning. (iv) The main mode of urban expansion in Shanghai was the edge growth, the direction towards east along Wuzhou Avenue in the Pudong new area, the direction towards south along the Humin elevated road in Xuhui District, and the direction towards west along Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in Jiading and Qingpu districts, are the main city expansion direction in the future. And (v) from 2010 to 2040, urban expansion in Shanghai will occupy cultivated land 1200hm2 per year, and will occupy cultivated land 41 824 hm2 totally.
Key words： Shanghai; land use; SLEUTH model; urban expansion
ZHENG Kaidi, XU Xinliang*, ZHANG Xuexia, Liu Luo . Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Future Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2012 , 14(4) : 490 -496 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2012.00490
[1] Rafiee R, Mahiny A, et al. Simulating urban growth in Mashad City, Iran through the SLEUTH model (UGM)[J]. Cities, 2009, 26(1):19-26.
[2] Norman L, Guertin D, et al. A coupled model approach to reduce nonpoint-source pollution resulting from predicted urban growth: A case study in the watershed[J]. Urban Geography, 2008, 29(5):496-516.
[3] Dietzel C, Clarke K. The effect of disaggregating land use categories in cellular automata during model calibration and forecasting[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2006, 30(1):78-101.
[4] 刘纪远,张增祥,徐新良.21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力分析 [J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(12):1411-1420.
[5] 刘纪远,张增祥,庄大方.20世纪90年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析 [J].地理研究, 2003, 22:1-12.
[6] 周成虎,孙战利,谢一春. 地理元胞自动机研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社,1999,34-38.
[7] Clarke K C,Hoppen S,Gaydos J. A self-modifying cellular auto maton model of historical urbanization in the San Francisco Bay area[J]. Environment and Planning B:Planning & Design,1997,24(2):247-261.
[8] 李明杰,钱乐祥,吴志峰,等. 广州市海珠区高密度城区扩展SLEUTH模型模拟[J]. 地理学报,2010,65(10):1163-1172.
[9] 刘勇. SLEUTH 模型支持下的城市扩展方案模拟与评估[J]. 经济地理,2009,29(10):1661-1664.
[10] 吴晓青,胡远满,贺红士,等. 沈阳市城市扩展与土地利用变化多情景模拟[J]. 地理研究,2009, 28(5):1264-1275.
[11] 朱飞鸽,胡瀚文,沈兴华,等. 基于SLEUTH模型的上海城市增长预测[J]. 生态学杂志, 2011, 30(9):2107-2114.
[12] 潘家华,牛凤瑞,魏后凯. 中国城市发展报告[M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社,2009.
[13] 刘纪远,布和敖斯尔. 中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究[J]. 第四纪研究, 2000, 20(3): 229-239.
[14] Liu J, Zhan J, Deng X. 2005. Spatio-temporal patterns and driving forces of urban land expansion in China during the economic reform era[J]. Ambio, 34: 450-455.
[15] 徐新良,闵稀碧,田展. 基于GIS与LTM模型的上海市城市空间扩展模拟与预测[J]. 中国人口资源与环境,2010,20(5):136-139.
[16] 吴晓青,胡远满,贺红士,等. 沈阳市城市扩展动态模拟与预测[J]. 辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2009,28(2):318-321.
[17] Norman L, Feller M, et al. Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2009,33(2):150-159.
[18] Wu X, Hu Y, et al. Performance evaluation of the SLEUTH model in the Shenyang Metropolitan Area of Northeastern China[J]. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2008, 14(2):221-230.
[19] Jantz C, Goetz S, et al. Designing and implementing a regional urban modeling system using the SLEUTH cellular urban model[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2010,34(1):1-16.
[20] 冯徽徽,夏斌,吴晓青.基于sleuth模型的东莞市区城市增长模拟研究 [J].地理与地理信息科学, 2008, 24:76-80.
[21] 刘勇,吴次芳,岳文泽.基于sleuth模型的杭州市城市扩展研究 [J].自然资源学报, 2008, 23(5):797-807.
[22] 米丽娜. 基于sleuth模型的银川市空间扩展研究.兰州大学论文, 2008.
[23] 涂小松,濮励杰,等.基于sleuth模型的无锡市区土地利用变化情景模拟[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 17(6):860-865.
[24] 李光丽,杜培军,王小美,等.多源遥感影像土地覆盖分类结果一致性评价与集成应用[J].地理与地理信息科学, 2009, 25(4):68-71.
[25] Jantz C A, Goetz S J. Analysis of scale dependencies in an urban land-use-change model[J]. International Journal of Geo-graphical Information Science, 2005, 19: 217-241.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |