A Method of Simulation and Prediction of Urban Morphology under Multiscenarios

  • Architecture College, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Received date: 2013-01-07

  Revised date: 2013-03-19

  Online published: 2013-06-17


As one type of CA, logistic-CA now has been successfully adopted in urban studies. But logistic-CA model can only be applied to simulation according to historical evolution trend. Besides, the quantity of prediction in a certain year cannot be correctly obtained. In this study, we have carried out two modifications on the lo-gistic-CA model, one is to insert grey prediction; the other is making the model capable of simulating urban morphology evolution under multi-scenarios. Then we applied this model to simulate and predict urban morphology evolution of the coastal area in Tianjin Municipality, in order to investigate the regularity and characteristics under three scenarios, e.g. historical extrapolation, endogenous development and exogenous development, so as to better grasp urban morphology evolution regularities. The simulation of three scenarios shows that urban morphology inevitably grows followed a cross form,but the characteristic of three scenarios are a lots of differences. Modified logistic-CA model gives full play to the advantage of CA, that is, bottom-up simulation of urban spatial process under multi-scenarios. Through examination, the modified model has a high accuracy in simulation and prediction, which achieves the goal of quantitative simulation and prediction of urban morphology evolution under multi-scenarios. It is necessary for urban planning to master the expansion of the inevitability of urban form, in order to grasp the possibility of a specific area to achieve effective control of the urban development process.

Cite this article

HUANG Huan-Chun, YUN Ying-Xia- . A Method of Simulation and Prediction of Urban Morphology under Multiscenarios[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2013 , 15(3) : 380 -388 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2013.00380


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