Journal of Geo-information Science >
Precision Estimation of the Average Daily Precipitation Simulated by IPCC AR5 GCMs in China
Received date: 2015-04-16
Request revised date: 2015-06-04
Online published: 2016-02-04
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This article estimated the precision of the precipitation simulated by 15 IPCC AR5 (the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC AR5) GCMs (Global Climate Models) and the multi-model ensemble (MME), based on the observed precipitation from 660 stations in China during 1996 to 2005. We firstly extracted the model simulation value at the corresponding position of the meteorological station, using the bilinear interpolation method, and took the average value of different models at the same station as the multi-model ensemble simulation value, then estimated the precision of the precipitation simulated by 15 IPCC AR5 GCMs and MME based on the observation of meteorological station. There were four evaluation parameters, including Corr (correlation coefficient), Bias, MRE (Mean Relative Error), and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error). Results show that the biases of the average daily precipitations simulated by IPCC AR5 GCMs present a gradually downward trend from northwest to southeast, and the RMSEs show a gradually increasing trend from northwest to southeast, while MREs in the east are less than those in the west. 82.3% of the average daily precipitations simulated by MRI-CGCM3 have relatively small biases, ranging from -0.5 to 0.5. The precisions of average daily precipitations simulated by BNU and MIROC-ESM are lower than that of others. Compared with other models, the MME simulation has the largest percentages of which the correlation coefficients are more than 0.5, MREs are less than 0.5, and RMSEs are less than 4mm, which accounted for 64.8%, 25.8% and 86.4% respectively. And the percentage of the biases ranging from -0.5 to 0.5 is relatively large, which is 56.7%, indicating that the simulation precision of MME is better than that of any other GCMs, and the MME can reduce the uncertainty of a single GCM simulation in future scenarios. Therefore, it is more scientific and reasonable to select the precipitation simulated by MME as the climate change condition, while studying subjects related to climate change.
Key words: IPCC AR5; GCMs; precipitation; precision
SUN Zhen , JIA Shaofeng , LV Aifeng , ZHU Wenbin , GAO Yanchun . Precision Estimation of the Average Daily Precipitation Simulated by IPCC AR5 GCMs in China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2016 , 18(2) : 227 -237 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00227
Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of annual precipitation simulated by MME during 1996-2005, meteorological stations and watershed in China图1 MME模拟的中国地区1996-2005年年平均降水、气象站点和水资源一级区分布图 |
Tab. 1 The basic description of IPCC AR5 GCMs表1 IPCC AR5GCMs基本信息描述 |
模式名称 | 国家 | 研究机构 | 空间分辨率(纬向×经向) | 时间步长(√考虑闰年) |
---|---|---|---|---|
BCC | 中国 | 国家气候中心 | 64×128 | |
BNU | 中国 | 北京师范大学 | 64×128 | |
CanESM2 | 加拿大 | CCCma | 64×128 | |
CCSM4 | 美国 | NCAR | 192×288 | |
CNRM-CM5 | 法国 | CNRM | 128×256 | √ |
CSIRO-MK3.6.0 | 澳大利亚 | CSIRO | 96×192 | |
FGOALS-g2 | 中国 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所和清华大学 | 60×128 | |
GISS-E2-R | 美国 | GISS/ NASA | 90×144 | |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 法国 | IPSL | 96×96 | |
MIROC5 | 日本 | AORI/NIES/JAMSTE | 128×256 | |
MIROC-ESM | 日本 | 64×128 | √ | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 日本 | 64×128 | √ | |
MPI-ESM-LR | 德国 | MPI | 96×192 | √ |
MRI-CGCM3 | 日本 | MRI | 160×320 | √ |
NorESM1-M | 挪威 | NCC | 96×144 |
Fig. 2 The spatial distributions of the correlation coefficients between average daily precipitation simulations and station records in China during 1996-2005图2 IPCC AR5 GCMs 1996-2005年平均日降水模拟值相关系数空间分布 |
Fig. 3 The spatial distributions of the Bias of average daily precipitation simulations based on station records in China during 1996-2005图3 IPCC AR5 GCMs 1996-2005年平均日降水模拟值Bias空间分布 |
Fig. 4 The spatial distributions of the MRE of average daily precipitation simulations based on station records in China during 1996-2005图4 IPCC AR5 GCMs 1996-2005年平均日降水模拟值MRE空间分布 |
Fig. 5 The spatial distributions of the RMSE of average annual precipitation simulations based on station records in China during 1996-2005图5 IPCC AR5 GCMs 1996-2005年平均日降水模拟值RMSE空间分布 |
Tab. 2 Estimations on precision of average daily precipitations simulated by IPCC AR5 GCMs / (%)表2 IPCC AR5 GCMs日平均降水模拟值精度评估结果 / (%) |
模型 | r>0.5 | r<0 | |Bias|<0.5 | Bias>3 | RMSE<4 | RMSE>5 | MRE<0.5 | MRE>1.5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BCC | 23.8 | 5.6 | 51.8 | 7.7 | 67.3 | 12.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
BNU | 32.7 | 5.2 | 43.8 | 11.4 | 58.3 | 14.4 | 4.7 | 5.6 |
CanESM2 | 31.7 | 1.1 | 58.0 | 4.1 | 62.3 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
CCSM4 | 19.7 | 0.8 | 53.6 | 5.0 | 68.3 | 12.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
MPI-ESM-LR | 28.2 | 3.9 | 55.8 | 4.8 | 66.1 | 11.5 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
MRI-CGCM3 | 24.4 | 3.6 | 82.3 | 2.4 | 67.6 | 12.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
NorESM1-M | 34.5 | 0.5 | 47.9 | 7.1 | 65.9 | 13.3 | 3.3 | 5.3 |
CNRM-CM5 | 27.1 | 0.2 | 65.9 | 2.4 | 65.2 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 1.4 |
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | 28.0 | 2.6 | 70.3 | 2.7 | 69.8 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 0.9 |
FGOALS-g2 | 21.8 | 4.4 | 57.4 | 5.8 | 78.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 |
GISS-E2-R | 18.0 | 2.0 | 67.0 | 7.6 | 67.9 | 13.8 | 5.5 | 3.5 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 29.4 | 1.1 | 64.5 | 3.6 | 74.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 0.3 |
MIROC5 | 26.1 | 0.3 | 76.8 | 4.1 | 72.6 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 1.2 |
MIROC-ESM | 19.1 | 0.2 | 45.8 | 9.7 | 72.4 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 4.8 |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 18.9 | 1.4 | 46.7 | 8.8 | 68.3 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 3.6 |
MME | 64.8 | 0.2 | 56.7 | 5.3 | 86.4 | 4.5 | 25.8 | 1.2 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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