Journal of Geo-information Science >
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Neural Tube Defects in Yuanping County, Shanxi Province
Received date: 2016-10-13
Request revised date: 2017-01-16
Online published: 2017-04-20
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Neural tube defects (NTDs) are congenital anomalies that occur in the central nervous system. NTD is one of the birth defects with the highest incidence. China has the world’s highest rate of NTDs. Moreover, Shanxi province which is a leading producer of coal in China, has the Chinese highest incidence of NTDs. Yuanping County is one of the cities with highest incidence of NTDs. In epidemiology, researchers often use data based on the spatial distribution of diseases. However, with the growing interest in detection of variation of temporal trend in different study units, spatial-temporal modeling has been developed in the epidemiological analysis. Recently, one of spatial-temporal models based on the theory of bayesian has been extensively applied to the analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in relation to given diseases. The main difference of Bayesian spatial-temporal model is that it offers a natural framework to combine information from neighbouring areas or periods and hence to make the estimated results more reliable. In this paper, we applied a Bayesian spatial-temporal model and incorporated a space-time interactions component to explore the spatial-temporal variation of NTDs. The incidences of NTDs in Yuanping County of Shanxi Province between 2007 and 2012 were selected to analyze the spatial-temporal variation. Firstly, we identified areas that belong to the hot spots, cold spots or neither, and then studied the temporal trends of each area. Results show that the incidence rates of NTDs in Yuanping County is still very high. There is 1 hot spot, none cold spot and 17 areas that are neither hot spots nor cold spots. As a whole, the risk of NTDs in Yuanping County is slowly decreasing. The single hot spot has a slower decreasing trend compared to the overall decreasing trend in Yuanping County. Four areas which are neither hot spots nor cold spots show a faster decreasing trend. The rest of thirteen areas show the same decreasing trend as the whole. This paper identified the space-time variation and trends of NTDs in Yuanping County, which can help to study the potential factors and control measures of NTDs. Also, we provide scientific basis for the government to prevent the occurrence of NTDs.
CHEN Huiyan , LIAO Yilan , ZHANG Ningxu , XU Bing . Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Neural Tube Defects in Yuanping County, Shanxi Province[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017 , 19(4) : 502 -510 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00502
Fig. 1 Location of the study area图1 研究区地理位置图 |
Tab. 1 Categories of disease risks trend for each towns表1 各乡镇疾病风险趋势类型表 |
增强 | 减弱 | 趋同 | |
---|---|---|---|
热点 | ++ | +- | +/ |
冷点 | -+ | - - | -/ |
温点 | /+ | /- | // |
注:表中符号为AB型结构,其中A部分的“+”、“-”、“/”依次表示热点、冷点、温点,B部分的“+”、“-”、“/”依次表示增强、减弱、趋同。例如“++”表示热点区域疾病风险变化趋势较快,“+-”表示热点区域疾病风险变化趋势较慢或者有与整体变化趋势相反的变化趋势 |
Fig. 2 Convergence diagnostics plots of Gelman-Rubin图2 Gelman-Rubin收敛诊断图 |
Fig. 3 The posterior means and the posterior probabilities of the spatial relative risks (exp(si)) in Yuanping County图3 原平市空间相对风险(exp())后验均值和后验概率 |
Fig. 4 The overall time trend in Yuanping County图4 原平市总体时间变化趋势 |
Fig. 5 The posterior means and the posterior probabilities of the departures of the local trends from the overall trend (exp( b1i )) in Yuanping County图5 原平市各乡镇相对总体风险变化趋势的局部趋势 (exp())的后验均值和后验概率 |
Tab. 2 The posterior means and posterior probabilities of the spatial relative risks and the departures of the local trends from the overall trend for specific areas表2 特定区域时间及空间变异的后验均值和后验概率 |
Area(i) | pp() | pp() | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
西镇乡 | 1.1890 | 0.7411 | -0.1560 | 0.1542 |
长梁沟镇 | 0.9344 | 0.3668 | 0.3826 | 0.9375 |
轩岗镇 | 1.0160 | 0.4658 | 0.1469 | 0.7764 |
楼板寨乡 | 0.9323 | 0.3589 | 0.1176 | 0.7343 |
闫庄镇 | 1.079 | 0.551 | 0.1062 | 0.7026 |
Tab. 3 Numbers of areas belong to each disease risks trend category表3 原平市各疾病风险趋势类别的乡镇数量统计表 |
增强 | 减弱 | 趋同 | 总计/个 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
热点 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
冷点 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
温点 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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