Journal of Geo-information Science >
Analysis on Phase Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China
Received date: 2017-04-30
Request revised date: 2017-08-25
Online published: 2018-03-20
Supported by
Science and technology Project of State Grid
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41601162
Zhongnan University of Economics and Law National College Students Innovation Training Project, No.201710520126.
Copyright
Urban sprawl is a common problem in the process of rapid urban development. Due to differences in economic systems and other aspects, the characteristics and driving factors of urban sprawl in China are quite different from those in Western countries. The urban sprawl in China is accompanied by the disorderly development of land in the process of rapid urbanization. Based on the summary of domestic and international theoretical and empirical research, this paper chooses the elasticity of urbanized land to urbanized population to characterize the urban sprawl. This article analyzes the urban sprawl of 214 prefecture-level municipal districts from 1996 to 2014, and summarizes the following characteristics of its sprawl tendency: stable sprawl, adjustable sprawl, steady and high-speed sprawl, steady and low-speed sprawl. We summarize the following characteristics of its sprawl intensity: no sprawl, general spread and highly sprawl. In addition, we construct the panel model to explore the driving factors of urban sprawl from the aspects of the industrial structure, the government expenditure, the education development level, the traffic development level, the globalization level and market-oriented level. The results are as follows: (1) the issue of urban sprawl has a path dependence. Under the guidance of the development program with rapid economic growth, the high level of sprawl will continue for the rest of the year. (2) In the urban development mode oriented by economic construction, the development of secondary sector will significantly aggravate the urban spread. However, by promoting the development of the tertiary sector, local governments can attract foreign investment to optimize the structure of economic development and alleviate the problem of urban sprawl. (3) The influence of road construction, marketization level and college education level on the spread of cities is small or insignificant. Finally, we summarize the types, drivers and path dependence of urban sprawl and put forward policy proposals to control the urban sprawl from the perspectives of industrial structure and development.
SHAN Baoguo , SHAO Xi , YU Shan , HE Sanwei . Analysis on Phase Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2018 , 20(3) : 302 -310 . DOI: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170602
Fig. 1 The trend of urban sprawl and the intensity of urban sprawl图1 城市蔓延趋势和城市蔓延强度 |
Tab. 1 Results of metrology model表1 计量模型结果 |
模型① | 模型② | 模型③ | 模型④ | 模型⑤ | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE | FE | RE | FE | RE | |
SI(-1) | 0.623*** | 0.760*** | |||
(61.456) | (77.708) | ||||
lnsecond | 0.667*** | 1.684*** | 1.342*** | 0.172*** | 0.239 |
(7.788) | (3.460) | (3.001) | (3.077) | (1.169) | |
lnthird | -0.606*** | -2.219*** | -2.088*** | -0.179*** | -0.270 |
(-6.510) | (-4.414) | (-4.487) | (-2.871) | (-1.115) | |
lnexp | 0.282*** | 0.591* | 0.711** | 0.228*** | 0.142 |
(4.562) | (1.673) | (2.114) | (5.577) | (0.658) | |
lnedu | 0.002 | -0.014 | -0.025 | 0.014* | -0.040 |
(0.109) | (-0.166) | (-0.309) | (1.414) | (-0.841) | |
lnforeign | 0.054*** | 0.213*** | 0.187*** | 0.019** | 0.012 |
(4.223) | (3.007) | (2.722) | (2.340) | (0.257) | |
road | 0.070*** | 0.149*** | 0.123*** | 0.009** | -0.065*** |
(9.720) | (4.265) | (3.671) | (2.232) | (-3.390) | |
market | 0.088 | 0.985 | 1.819* | 0.453*** | 2.534*** |
(0.479) | (0.924) | (1.776) | (3.962) | (3.614) | |
R2 | 0.776 | 0.566 | 0.026 | 0.903 | 0.574 |
回归方法 | GLS | OLS | GLS | GLS | GLS |
Huasman检验 | 23.9 | 931 | |||
样本量 | 4 066 | 4 066 | 4 066 | 4 066 | 4 066 |
注:*表示为在10%的统计水平上显著;**表示为在5%的统计水平上显著;***表示为在1%的统计水平上显著 |
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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