Journal of Geo-information Science >
Assessment of the Rainfall-Induced Landslide Hazard and Population Exposure in China under 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ Global Warming Scenarios
Received date: 2022-08-16
Revised date: 2022-09-15
Online published: 2023-03-25
Supported by
Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20220456)
Guangxi Key Research and Development Program(GuikeAB22080060)
The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase under climate change scenarios, which may result in increasing risk of rainfall-induced landslide in some parts of the world. Based on the established national scale rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility model and cumulative rainfall -rainfall duration threshold curves for different geomorphic regions, this study employs the latest CMIP6 global climate model ensemble to assess the changes in landslide hazard in China under global warming in terms of both the spatial landslide susceptibility and frequency resulted from rainfall events exceeding the threshold of landslide occurrence. The results show that the multi-year mean annual precipitation projected by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is likely to increase by 5.4% to 9.5% under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios compared to the baseline period, resulting in a projected increase of 0.33% to 0.74% in moderate to very high landslide susceptibility areas, and a projected increase of 7.0% to 11.2% in landslide frequency due to the projected increase in extreme precipitation events. By further combing the projections of future population distribution, the potential exposed population is expected to increase by 620 million (18.90%) and 426 million (12.97%) under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios, respectively. The projected landslide hazards under the future scenarios increase in each geomorphic region, and there exists significant spatial heterogeneity. The range of moderate to very high susceptibility under a 2.0°C temperature rise scenario increases by 0.71%~1.28% compared with the baseline period, and the landslide occurrence frequency is projected to increase by 1.2%~15.6%. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections reveal hotspot areas where landslide susceptibility level and frequency are expected to increase under warming scenarios, including the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, the Tianshan Mountains in the northwest, and the Kunlun Mountains at the border of the Tibetan Plateau. And Qilian Mountains in the southwest mountainous region, the Loess Plateau and the Taihang Mountains in the south of the north-central plain region, and the Changbai area in the eastern plain region, are also key areas where appropriate landslide risk mitigation measures for climate change adaptation are needed. Considering the future population changes, our results show that the potential landslide exposed population in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area is expected to decrease by 4.68 million to 9.28 million, respectively, due to the obvious decrease in predicted future population, while the potential landslide exposed population in the southeastern hilly area increases by 396 million and 300 million, respectively, when temperature rises by 1.5°C and 2.0°C.
LIN Qigen , WANG Leibin , ZHANG Jiahui . Assessment of the Rainfall-Induced Landslide Hazard and Population Exposure in China under 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ Global Warming Scenarios[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2023 , 25(1) : 177 -189 . DOI: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2023.220594
表1 主要数据来源Tab. 1 List of the main data source of this study |
数据类别 | 数据名称 | 数据来源 | 数据内容 |
---|---|---|---|
观测降水数据 | CN05.1格点化观测数据集 | 吴佳和高学杰[28] | 1961—2018年逐日降水 |
气候模式历史模拟和未来预估数据 | CMIP6全球气候模式数据 | https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ | 历史时期(1850—2014年)和未来情景(2015—2100年)的逐日降水 |
地质灾害空间易发性评估影响因素 | 中国地质灾害空间易发性评估影响因素数据集 | Lin等[31] | 岩性、坡度、降水、土壤湿度、土地利用、地质环境分区等因素 |
历史人口空间分布数据 | Gridded Population of the World (GPW), v4 | https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/gpw-v4 | 2015年全球1 km人口空间分布数据 |
未来人口空间分布数据 | Global 1-km Downscaled Population Projection Grids Based on the SSPs, v1.01 | https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/popdynamics-1-km-downscaled-pop-base-year-projection-ssp-2000-2100-rev01 | 共享社会经济路径(SSP1—SSP5) 2010—2100年1 km预估人口空间分布数据 |
表2 本文采用的24个CMIP6全球气候模式Tab. 2 List of the 24 CMIP6 global climate models used in this study |
编号 | 名称 |
---|---|
1 | ACCESS-CM2 |
2 | ACCESS-ESM1-5 |
3 | BCC-CSM2-MR |
4 | CanESM5 |
5 | CESM2-WACCM |
6 | CMCC-CM2-SR5 |
7 | CMCC-ESM2 |
8 | EC-Earth3 |
9 | EC-Earth3-Veg |
10 | EC-Earth3-Veg-LR |
11 | FGOALS-g3 |
12 | GFDL-ESM4 |
13 | IITM-ESM |
14 | INM-CM4-8 |
15 | INM-CM5-0 |
16 | IPSL-CM6A-LR |
17 | KACE-1-0-G |
18 | MIROC6 |
19 | MPI-ESM1-2-HR |
20 | MPI-ESM1-2-LR |
21 | MRI-ESM2-0 |
22 | NorESM2-LM |
23 | NorESM2-MM |
24 | TaiESM1 |
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