LIU Zhaoge, LI Xiangyang, ZHU Xiaohan
The converting evolution of cascading disaster scenario refers to that in the process of disaster scenario evolution, the disaster bearing bodies transform into new disaster hazards, forming a disaster chain. Rainstorm can easily cause serious secondary disasters such as waterlogging, debris flow and flood, and the combination of these secondary disasters will make the city more vulnerable. However, existing research on rainstorm cascading scenario deduction lacks the analysis of specific scenario evolution situations such as multi disaster combination, scenario element converting, and human-induced emergencies. Meanwhile, traditional research often relies on the probability inference based on existing scenario evolution networks, without providing a construction method for scenario evolution networks, making it difficult to adapt to the knowledge requirements of actual scenario situation converting deduction. To address the scenario converting evolution problems of urban rainstorm cascading disasters, this paper proposes a scenario converting deduction method for rainstorm cascading disaster response based on multi-source spatial data and probability analysis tools. First, based on local and non-local historical emergency cases, the scenario elements involved in the rainstorm cascading disaster scenarios and their potential converting paths are identified. Next, with the support of Baidu Encyclopedia and Wikipedia network knowledge resources, relevant scenario element features and their associations are extracted, and a Group Lasso machine learning method is adopted to achieve feature selection of involved scenario elements. Then, considering the multi-stage and complex scenario correlation in the process of cascading scenario evolution, a dynamic Bayesian network model for scenario converting deduction is constructed. Finally, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to solve the Bayesian network and generate the converting probabilities. The proposed method is applied to the rainstorm response practice of Wuhan High-tech Zone. The use case results show that the proposed method can combine historical cases and network data to achieve rapid and effective generation of key scenario elements and their features, helping to improve the reliability of scenario converting deduction. At the same time, the proposed method supports the scenario converting deduction of small-scale disaster-bearing bodies such as geographic grids, which helps to provide more accurate rainstorm emergency decision-making support and provide good performance in visual analysis. The uncertainty analysis of the proposed method shows that the precision of original probabilities of key scenario element features and the size of generated geographic grids significantly affect the scenario converting deduction results. These findings provide important information for the local area and are expected to help the rainstorm disaster management of other jurisdictions.