YIN Daolong, CHANG Ming, XU Qiang, CHEN Ming, ZHAO Boju, DONG Xiujun, LIANG Jingtao
[Objectives] In the early morning of July 5, 2025, a flash flood and debris flow occurred in Mozi Gully, Fuxiang Township, Hanyuan County, Ya’an City, Sichuan Province, causing road damage but no casualties. The area is located in the transition zone on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, characterized by complex geological structures and a fragile geological environment. Concentrated precipitation and frequent short-duration intense rainfall contribute to a high risk of flash flood and debris flow disasters in this region.Against the backdrop of increasing extreme weather events due to global climate change, Therefore, unraveling the disaster-causing mechanisms under extreme rainfall is crucial for enhancing prevention and mitigation capabilities in mountainous regions. [Methods] This study proposes an innovative multi-factor coupling analytical framework termed "Water-Soil-Air-Biology," which systematically integrates four key dimensions: hydrological convergence potential, sediment supply conditions, climatic triggers, and biological response. By comprehensively utilizing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) aerial survey to obtain high-precision terrain and material source data, integrating multi-source remote sensing images for vegetation monitoring and snow cover interpretation, and combining ground field investigation verification, and based on physical mechanisms, reproducing the entire process of numerical simulation, the system analyzes the causes and dynamic evolution process of disasters, realizing the full chain dynamic simulation from rainfall infiltration, slope instability, material transport to final accumulation. [Results] Short-term intense rainfall is the main triggering factor, and its spatial distribution is consistent with the high-value areas of terrain humidity index and runoff intensity index, significantly exacerbating channel erosion. Sediment availability, particularly the extensive and readily mobilizable historical deposits within U-shaped channels, coupled with high sediment connectivity, formed the material basis of the disaster. Vegetation degradation and human activities further compromised slope stability and altered surface runoff-infiltration relationships.Numerical inversion successfully reconstructed the dynamic process, revealing significant hazard risk at the gully mouth, with a maximum flow depth of 14.17 m, a peak velocity of 23.22 m/s, posing a severe threat to local infrastructure. [Conclusions] This studysystematically elucidates the complex disaster-causing mechanisms of flash floods and debris flows induced by extreme rainfall, addressing the shortcomings of traditional methods in capturing multi-factor interactions. The framework not only provides a solid scientific basis and a practical technical pathway for refined early warning and risk prevention of mountain torrent disasters but also offers a valuable reference for simulating similar events via its full-process numerical modeling approach. Future research should integrate artificial intelligence, real-time sensing, and multi-source monitoring data to develop intelligent early-warning and risk management platforms, thereby advancing disaster prevention and mitigation towards greater precision, intelligence, and proactivity.