基于改进Markov-CA模型的黄土高原土地利用多情景模拟

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200283

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 825-836.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200283

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇下一篇

基于改进Markov-CA模型的黄土高原土地利用多情景模拟

孙定钊¹^,²(), 梁友嘉¹^,^*()

1.武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,武汉 430070
2.贵州省地质矿产勘查开发局测绘院,贵阳 550018

收稿日期:2020-06-04 修回日期:2020-07-22 出版日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-07-25
通讯作者: 梁友嘉
作者简介:孙定钊（1996— ）,男,贵州遵义人,硕士生,主要从事生态系统服务评估研究。E-mail:dingzhao_sun@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41601184);黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室开放基金(A314021402-202110)

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Dynamic in the Loess Plateau using an Improved Markov-CA Model

SUN Dingzhao¹^,²(), LIANG Youjia¹^,^*()

1. School of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
2. Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Guizhou Geological and Mineral Exploration Bureau, Guiyang 550018, China

Received:2020-06-04 Revised:2020-07-22 Online:2021-05-25 Published:2021-07-25
Contact: LIANG Youjia
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41601184);Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau(A314021402-202110)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用/覆被的时空变化研究能为区域生态环境恢复和生态系统集成管理提供科学支持。集成Logistic回归模型、改进的Markov与FLUS模型模拟黄土高原2020—2050年3种典型情景土地利用变化。发现各情景土地利用面积变化及空间置换转移主要集中在农用地、草地和城镇用地;历史趋势延续情景下农用地减少15 205 km²,草地、城镇用地分别增加2742 km²和16 007 km²;生态保育管护情景中草地增加7076 km²,林草用地增长存在权衡关系（r_{主要林地-草地}=-0.66）,在典型区域的生态恢复管理中应加以重视;城镇发展建设情景中农用地减少20 256 km²,城镇用地增加22 032 km²,变化均达到极值,其中,南部城镇扩张与农用地减少存在强权衡关系（r_{农用地-城镇用地}=-1）。改进的Markov-FLUS模型适用于黄土高原地区的土地利用模拟,情景分析可有效揭示区域生态保护与城镇扩张的阈值变化,为区域土地利用政策权衡管理和水土保育提供科学依据。

关键词: FLUS模型, Markov模型, 土地利用/覆被变化, 生态保育, 城镇扩张, 多情景模拟, 权衡分析, 黄土高原

Abstract:

Simulating the spatiotemporal land use and land cover dynamic can provide a scientific support for regional ecological environment restoration and integrated ecosystem management. In this study, an improved Logistic-Markov-FLUS model was used to simulate land-use changes (2020—2050) under multi-scenarios in the Loess Plateau. Results show that the changes of land use area and spatial displacement were mainly concentrated in agricultural land, grassland, and urban land. In the historical trend scenario, a decreasing trend was observed in cropland with a decreased area of 15 205 km², while an increasing trend was found in the grassland and urban land with an increased area of 2742 km² and 16 007 km², respectively. In the ecological conservation management scenario, the policy for vegetation protection had a significant effect on the increase of grassland (7076 km²), showing a significant trade-off ($r_{main forestland-grassland}=-0.66$) between grassland and forest growth due to the coexistence of land transformation. Ecological protection and construction should fully consider this ecological trade-off in specific regions. The reduction of cropland (20,256 km²) and urban land (22 032 km²) in the urban development and construction scenario was the largest. There was a strong trade-off ($r_{agricultural-urban}=-1$) between the expansion of urban land and the reduction of cropland in the southern regions. The improved Markov-FLUS model had better performance on multi-scale land use dynamic simulation in the Loess Plateau. The scenario-based method can also be used to explore the abrupt changes in ecological protection and urban expansion for better LUCC decision-making and trade-off management of ecosystems.

Key words: FLUS model, markov model, land use/cover change, ecological protection, urban expansion, multi-scenario simulation, trade-offs analysis, Loess Plateau

孙定钊, 梁友嘉. 基于改进Markov-CA模型的黄土高原土地利用多情景模拟[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2021, 23(5): 825-836.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200283

SUN Dingzhao, LIANG Youjia. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Dynamic in the Loess Plateau using an Improved Markov-CA Model[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2021, 23(5): 825-836.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200283

图/表 12

图1

表1

图2

表2

不同情景的wn取值

情景	描述	情景权重矩阵 $w n$ 取值
历史趋势延续	继承历史时期各地类变化趋势	—
生态保育管护	农用地与城镇用地的扩张减缓,林草地快速增长	Diag (0.95, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.1, 0.85, 1, 1)
城镇发展建设	城镇用地的快速扩张,压缩林草地增长	Diag (1.1, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 1, 1.2, 1,1)

表2

图3

图4

图5

表3

图6

图7

图8

图9

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重分类编号	重分类名称	原始地类编号	原始地类描述及编号
1	农用地	10	农田、雨养
		20	农田、灌溉或注水后
		30	镶嵌农田（>50%）/自然植被(树木、灌丛、草本覆盖) （<50%）
		40	镶嵌自然植被(树木,灌丛,草本覆盖) (>50%)/农田(<50%)
2	常绿阔叶林	50	树木覆盖、阔叶、常绿、郁闭度(>15%)
3	落叶阔叶林	60	树木覆盖、阔叶、落叶、郁闭度 (>15%)
4	常绿针叶林	70	树木覆盖、针叶、常绿、郁闭度(>15%)
5	有林地	80	树木覆盖、针叶、落叶、郁闭度(>15%)
		100	镶嵌树木和灌丛(>50%)/草本覆盖(<50%)
		160	树木覆盖、淹没、淡水或半咸水
		170	树木覆盖、淹没、咸水
6	草地	110	镶嵌草本覆盖(>50%)/树木和灌丛(<50%)
6	草地	130	草地
7	灌丛	120	灌木地
7	灌丛	180	灌木和草本覆盖、淹没、淡水/咸水/半咸水
8	城镇用地	190	城镇地区
9	水域	210	水体
9	水域	220	永久冰雪
10	其他用地	140	地衣和苔藓
		150	稀疏植被(树木、灌丛、草本覆盖) (<15%)
		200	裸地

驱动因子	农用地	常绿阔叶林	落叶阔叶林	常绿针叶林	有林地	草地	灌丛	城镇用地	水域	其他用地
坡度	-0.164	0.186	0.034	0.118	0.132	0.090	-0.362	-0.424	-0.324	-0.054
坡向	-0.001	―	―	0.001	―	0.001	―	―	―	0.001
降水	0.000	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.000	―	0.000	-0.001
气温	0.011	0.006	0.002	-0.017	-0.100	-0.023	0.026	0.014	―	-0.035
距城市距离	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	―	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
距公路距离	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	―	0.000
距铁路距离	―	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
距河流距离	0.000	―	0.000	0.000	―	0.000	―	0.000	0.000	0.000
GDP	0.000	―	―	―	―	―	―	0.000	0.000	0.001
人口	0.000	―	0.000	―	―	―	―	0.000	―	-0.015
常数	-0.871	-13.944	-13.555	-7.422	-8.239	3.586	-7.520	-2.711	-3.628	3.806
ROC值	0.738	0.962	0.916	0.901	0.882	0.811	0.830	0.889	0.744	0.941

基于改进Markov-CA模型的黄土高原土地利用多情景模拟

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Dynamic in the Loess Plateau using an Improved Markov-CA Model

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