本文以扬州市市辖区为例,利用2001年的ETM影像与2007年的ALOS影像两期遥感数据,采用面向对象的信息提取方法,获取了扬州市2001年与2007年两期土地利用空间分布图。在此基础上,研究了CLUE-S模型的原理及CLUE-S模型的应用;探讨了CLUE-S模型所需数据、驱动因子选取、模拟参数设置、模拟结果获取等,进而运用CLUE-S模型,以2001年土地利用分布图为模型输入数据,模拟预测了扬州市2002-2007年的土地利用空间分布格局;最后,利用面向对象方法所获取的2007年土地利用空间分布图,对2007年的模拟结果进行了检验,研究分析CLUE-S模型的可应用性。结果显示,CLUE-S模型可以较好地模拟较小尺度区域城市空间发展分布格 局,能为较小尺度城市的发展规划提供指导,是值得推广应用的土地利用与土地覆被变化模型。
Based on the principle of the CLUE-S (the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent) model, taking Yangzhou City area as an example, we firstly collected the required data, including basic geographic data (vector data and image data) and statistics data, then preprocessed the image data, including ETM images in 2001 and ALOS images in 2007, and took use of object-oriented information extraction method to obtain a land use map for two periods (2001 and 2007). We selected the driving factors and used GIS spatial analysis tools to get a variety of spatial distribution of all the driving factors, set the model parameters, and took the land-use map in 2001 as the model input data to simulate the spatial pattern of land use of 2002-2007 in Yangzhou City area. Finally, we obtained the actual land use map of 2007 in Yangzhou City area by using the object-oriented data extraction method, and tested the simulation results of 2007 in Yangzhou City area and analyzed the applicability of the CLUE-S model. The result shows that the CLUE-S model could simulate preferably the spatial distribution pattern on a small-scale. Therefore, it could provide guidance for small city planning. So the CLUE-S model is one of the land use/land cover change models that worth to be made more widespread.
[1] 陈佑启,Peter H.Verburg.基于GIS的中国土地利用变化及其影响模型[J].生态科学,2000,19(3):1-7.
[2] Lambin E F,Rounsevell M D A,Geist H J. Are Agricultural Land-use and Land-cover Change Science/research Plan . Stockholm and Agriculturae,Ecosystems and Environment,2000,82:321-331.
[3] Verburg P H,Paul Schot,et al.Land Use Change Modelling:Current Practice and Research Priorities[J].Geojournal:in press.
[4] Veldkamp A,Fresco L.CLUE-CR:An Integrated Multiscale Model to Aimulate Land Use Change Scenarios in Costa Rica[J].Eco1.Model,1996,91:231-248.
[5] Verburg P H,Veldkamp A,de Koning G H J,et al.A Spatial Explicit Allocation Procedure for Modelling the Pattern of Land Use Change Based upon Actual Land Use[J].Ecological Modeling,1999,116:45-61.
[6] 张永民,周成虎,郑纯辉,等.沽源县土地利用格局的多尺度模拟与分析[J].资源科学,2006,28(2):88-96.
[7] 摆万奇,张永民,阎建忠,等.大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):206-214.
[8] 朱现龙.扬州市市辖区土地利用/覆被变化模拟研究 .中南大学硕士学位论文,2009.
[9] 张永民,赵士洞,张克斌.科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的时空动态模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2003,25(3):68-73.
[10] 蔡玉梅,刘彦随,宇振荣.土地利用变化空间模拟的进展—CLUE-S模型及其应用[J].地理科学,2004(4):63-70.
[11] 谢峰.基于CLUE-S模型的吐鲁番市土地利用动态变化模拟研究 .新疆大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[12] 吴桂平.CLUE-S模型的改进与区域土地利用变化模拟 .中南大学硕士学位论文,2008.
[13] 张华.基于水资源约束机制的张掖市土地利用/覆盖变化模拟研究 .西北师范大学硕士学位论文,2004.
[14] 王秀梅.基于RS和GIS的鄂托克旗土地利用与土地覆被变化模拟研究 .内蒙古师范大学硕士学位论文,2007.
[15] Pontius Jr. R G, Schneider I C. Land-cover Change Model Validation by an ROC Method for the Ipswich Watershed,Massachusetts,USA[J]. Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85:239-248.
