LI Jun, LIU Juqing, YOU Lin, DONG Heng, YU Yan, ZHANG Xiaopan, ZHONG Wenjun, YANG Dianhua
With the rapid development of urbanization, urban construction land is becoming increasingly scarce. Therefore, as a macro-regulation policy for the intensive utilization and optimal allocation of land resources, land reserve is playing an increasingly important role. However, at present, land reserve decision-making lacks scientific basis and cannot effectively carry out resource allocation. In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward seven intelligent decision-making models for land reserve through in-depth analysis of the basic services and decision-making processes of land reserves. The models are listed below. Firstly, Stock Land Monitoring Model based on the comprehensive quantitative evaluation method, which can dynamically monitor and discover the city stock land and then make recommendations for land reserve objects. Secondly, Land Reserve Cost Prediction Model based on the market comparison method, which can carry out a large range and efficiently predict the cost of stock land. Thirdly, Land Sale Price Prediction Model based on the Support Vector Machine (SVM), which can predict the reserve income of the land to be sold. Fourthly, Land Reserve Balance Analysis Model based on the gray forecast model, which can predict the amount of land reserve to promote coordinated regional development. Fifthly, Similar Land Query Model based on the comprehensive quantitative evaluation method, which can promote large-scale land development to form an agglomeration effect. Sixthly, Development Sequence Analysis Model based on the comprehensive quantitative evaluation method, which can optimize the spatial structure and formulate a reasonable development sequence to promote the continuous rolling of funds. Seventhly, Abnormal Land Identification Model based on spatial overlay analysis, which can improve the detection efficiency of various problematic plots. The purpose of this model set is to make the land reserve decision-making process scientific, quantitative, and model-based, which focuses on providing instructions for the overall arrangement of total land reserve, benefit, scale, structure, layout, and time sequence. In addition, through theoretical analysis and practical verification, we found that the model set has the characteristics of systematization, high efficiency, flexibility, and intelligence. It can serve the entire chain of land reserve service, meet the needs of real-time decision-making applications, and realize the independent update and evolution to ensure the timeliness of model computation. Finally, the model set has been engineered and applied to the Ningbo Land Reserve Intelligent Decision Support Platform. The effectiveness and practicality of the above decision-making models have been verified by simulating the entire land reserve decision-making processes based on this platform, indicating that the model set can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific decision-making of land reserves.