Journal of Geo-information Science

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Study on Urban Spatial Growth Simulation Considering Uneven Rates of Stock Renewal and Incremental Development

ZHU Jie, ZHU Mengyao, SONG Shuying, DING Yuan, CHEN Li, ZHU Xueming, SUN Yizhong

Journal of Geo-information Science, 2024, 26(8): 1858-1879. DOI: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2024.240135

Fig. 13 Detailed map of inventory land renewal in Jiangyin city in 2027

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Fig. 1 Framework for urban spatial growth simulation considering uneven rates of stock renewal and incremental
Tab. 1 "Global-District-Parcel" Hierarchical Transmission
Fig. 2 The Correlation between incremental and inventory land use in the context of overall land use scale
Tab. 2 Data sources and classifications
Fig. 3 Hierarchical system of Jiangyin City
Fig. 4 Global constraints on land use conversion in Jiangyin City
Fig. 5 Land conversion probability in Jiangyin city and its districts from 2007 to 2012
Tab. 3 The initial annual growth rate of construction land from 2012 to 2017
Fig. 6 Overall suitability development probability of different land use types in Jiangyin city from 2012 to 2017
Fig. 7 Comparisons of land use simulation results for Jiangyin City in 2017 based on Multilevel-VCA and Single-level VCA
Tab. 4 Comparisons of simulation accuracy for Jiangyin City in 2017 based on Multilevel-VCA and Single-level VCA
Fig. 8 Comparisons of simulation local details for Jiangyin City in 2017 based on Multilevel-VCA and Single-level VCA
Fig. 9 Renewal land parcels in Jiangyin city in 2017
Tab. 5 Land replacement results for each area in Jiangyin city in 2017 (km²)
Tab. 6 The area of construction land in 2017 and the area predicted in 2027 in each area (km²)
Tab. 7 The initial renewal rate and the initial new land use rate of each area in 2027 (km²/年)
Tab. 8 Scenarios of stock renewal and incremental development set for 2027
Tab. 9 Control parameters for different scenarios
Fig. 10 Forecast results of land use under different scenarios in Jiangyin city in 2027
Fig. 11 Overlay of urban sprawl and boundaries under different scenarios in Jiangyin city in 2027
Fig. 12 Growth of incremental and stock land use in Jiangyin City under different scenarios for 2027
Tab. 10 Changes in inventory land use in Jiangyin city in 2027 (km²，%)

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